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Lin Lehui: If Biden is elected The US President, what will happen to the economy?

———— Release time:2021-01-14   Edit:  Read:25 ————

1. Unilateral tariffs will not be used to contain China, and trade frictions will ease. Promote the process of globalization, rebuild the allied system and repair the industry.


2. Maintain the independence of the Federal Reserve's decision-making (monetary policy) and adopt fiscal stimulus policies to drive the economy (fiscal policy). Global inflation expectations may rise.


3. There is a high probability that the US dollar will fall in the short term, which will benefit the RMB. In the long run, if the US economy stabilizes because of this, it will support the dollar. The agency predicts that after Biden is elected, US employment and economic data will be better than those during Trump's election.


4. Ethnic conflicts will ease and American order will become more stable.


5. It is possible to increase taxes and redistribute wealth for high-income groups (with an annual income of more than US$400,000 and more than US$1 million) and companies. The release of water is good for the stock market, but if tax increases on the company, it will have a suppressive effect on the stock market. On the whole, the long-term is good. If tax increases lead to a decline, it may be a golden pit.


6. The manufacturing industry continues to return to the United States, while increasing the construction of infrastructure and new energy (loose fiscal policy: 200 billion US dollars, like China, infrastructure plus new energy, and even 5G new infrastructure) to create job opportunities. Residents' income and deposits will increase, and the demand side will expand residents' consumption to stimulate the economy. (This is a bit similar to the situation in China)


7. Rejoin the Paris climate agreement. In 2050, the United States will achieve carbon neutral. Plan 500,000 electric vehicle charging piles.


8. In the stock market, new energy, biomedicine, TMT cutting-edge technology, and the revitalization of local manufacturing.


9. If Biden is not elected, or the epidemic cannot be controlled, these predictions are not valid.