At present, COVID-19 has begun to spread globally.Previously, the author briefly considered the consideration of "security" for global capital. This article briefly talks about its impact on globalization.

This question Taleb (risk management theory scholar, writer, author of "Black Swan") once predicted that globalization will cause serious viruses to spread globally. As a former financial derivatives trader, capital company founder, statistician, and businessman, Taleb has always been very vigilant about globalization. It is believed that globalization will reduce biodiversity and cause a series of problems to erupt. But what is the specific problem? There is no way to accurately answer and evaluate its specific impact, so he is a standard "black swan" (see the definition of the black swan event in the book).

Bill Gates, in recent years, has also made many public speeches and said: One of the serious risks that now makes him most vigilant is not nuclear weapons, and of course it is not whether the United States is an improper hegemon, but viruses (microbes).

TED Talk | Bill Gates: Are we ready to face the virus outbreak?

According to the logic of the two gods and men mentioned above, the virus is a major problem that is more serious than war, missiles, and nuclear weapons, and mankind is not yet ready to deal with it. Then globalization is likely to be an event of human activities that caused a certain virus to spread globally. That is, this chain: globalization> virus> difficult to deal with.

As we all know, viruses (biological viruses) are very small, and they are "non-cellular organisms" without the size of cells. It must find a host cell to survive. Viruses are smaller than bacteria and hard to prevent. And once the virus has successfully lodged in the human body, all kinds of vaccines and drugs that can't kill it can only make it stronger.

When was the last time mankind globalized? Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens wiped out Homo erectus everywhere, wiped out many types of large creatures on all continents, and successfully reduced the creatures on the earth at that time Diversity with its super-high brain capacity and language development (the current research seems to be the case, the author will not do more discussion).

From the perspective of economic development, globalization has become a consensus. But the possible biological hazards of globalization have not been considered in the voices of mainstream society. Because we are thinking about problems on the "economic" level. And economy is not the essential requirement for human survival, but survival in a biological environment.

We regard the fragile, accidentally formed, extremely short-lived living conditions in the long river of life on earth that the earth has given to modern humans as granted, as it should be, just like air. On this fragile foundation, various castles in the sky were built. However, if the bottom layer is shaken——whether it is due to human activities or earth activities, it becomes "black swan" time.

Of course, globalization will not stop because of the virus. There is a need for mobility and development in human nature (if we don’t say that we are arrogant), but more people should notice this——although this group of people will be very, very few, and this group of people will soon be overwhelmed by the mainstream development of society——de-globalization will be planted with a small seed.  It is not because of the need for the United States to transfer manufacturing from overseas to domestic or get profit from global mobile, but for human survival.

Author:Lin Lehui, Senior Research Fellow of INERI, Doctor of Economics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Bachelor and Master of Computer Science, Harbin Institute of Technology. e goods at business cycle research, financial transactions, family wealth management. His previous post: Senior Manager of Nasdaq listed company. His current position: Director of quantitative research of private equity funds, fund manager