Yuan Guobao

INERI senior researcher, founder of NewMedia New Media Alliance, mobile Internet trend observer, senior media person, well-known commentator, new media marketing and brand communication expert.

"In the future, everyone can be famous for 15 minutes, and everyone can be famous within 15 minutes." 

Andy Warhol's once very bold prediction has become very conservative in today's Internet environment. Perhaps, changing 15 minutes to 15 seconds will become more relevant to the current reality.

The Internet has given more and more ordinary people the opportunity to become famous overnight, and a brand-new concept——internet celebrity, which is what we usually call internet celebrity, was born.

For Internet celebrities, people of different ages have different "stereotypes." The Internet celebrities in the eyes of the post-90s may be people like Wei Ya, Li Jiaqi, and Li Ziqi; the Internet celebrities in the eyes of the post-85s may be Papi Jiang, Zhang Dayi, etc.; and among in the 70s and 80s crowd, the first impression of Internet celebrities is likely to be "weirdo" like Sister Feng and Sister Furong.

The negative impression from the very beginning has gradually become the object of the current society vying to imitate. Regardless of its operating methods or business models, Internet celebrities have experienced a huge leap.

Internet celebrity economy: from 1.0 to 3.0

The term "eyeball economy" has become well known with the popularity of the Internet. However, the eyeball economy did not originate from the Internet. In the era of traditional media, businesses will use hard media, soft placement and other forms to spread their influence in newspapers, magazines, TV and other channels to attract users' attention.

In the era of mobile Internet, user attention becomes more and more valuable. And what follows is the eyeball economy and the complementary Internet celebrity economy. According to Keigo Higashino, it is "the relationship between the prawn and the piranha."

In the author’s opinion, China's Internet celebrity development process can be roughly divided into three stages. These three stages are also closely related to the maturity of Internet technology and the continuous iteration of business models.

The first stage: The early Internet was restricted by hardware and broadband, and most of the content appeared in text form. Internet novels are quietly emerging in this environment. And the first group of people who became popular on the Internet were Internet writers who wrote these novels.

The second stage: The Internet has entered the era of graphics and text. In this period, Internet celebrities mostly rely on various photos or unique remarks to become popular, and most of them belong to grassroots celebrities.

The third stage: It is the current mobile Internet era. In this stage, the Internet celebrities are mostly video anchors, well-known big Vs, and e-commerce models.

From the first stage to the third stage, Internet celebrities have also developed from the earliest single-handed fight to the current team support. The entire industry has gradually developed from the initial 1.0 model to the 3.0 stage, and the scale of the Internet celebrity economy has also expanded rapidly.

2016 can be regarded as the first year of the Internet celebrity economy 3.0 model. This year, "Logical Thinking" invested in Papi Jiang, Huya signed the game anchor Miss at a sky-high price of 100 million, and the king of MC called Tianyou became popular... Internet celebrities are no longer just big traffic users with attention and topicality. People see the ability to attract money and commercial value from the Internet celebrities.

In 2019, livestreming e-commerce has become a new outlet. With the emergence of short video channels such as Douyin and Kuaishou, internet celebrity marketing have become a new trend.

In addition to Wei Ya, Li Jiaqi, Luo Yonghao and other head internet celebrity, Li Yanhong, Dong Mingzhu, Zhang Chaoyang and other well-known entrepreneurs, Shanghai Deputy Mayor Wu Qing, Dandong Mayor Zhang Shuping and more than a hundred mayors, etc. entered the live broadcast room to sale goods.

According to statistics from MINISTRY OF COMMERCE,PRC , in the first quarter of this year, the national e-commerce livestreaming exceeded 4 million. The number of live webcast users in China reached 560 million, with an increase of 163 million from the end of 2018, accounting for 62.0% of the total online users. The livestreaming e-commerce market is expected to reach more than 900 billion yuan in 2020.

According to the latest "China Internet Celebrity Economic Business Model and Trend Research Report" jointly released by iResearch and IMS World Show, the market size of fan economy-related industries in 2019 exceeded 3.5 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 24.3%. It is expected to exceed 6 trillion yuan in 2023. Among them, as the participation and commercial value of Internet celebrities in related industries continue to increase, the future will increasingly become an important part of related industries.

Internet celebrity marketing is not the end

However, Internet celebrity marketing is not the end. As more and more people pay attention to it, the controversy which Internet celebrity marketing face has also increased.

Whether it is a top anchor or an entertainment star, there are more and more cases of flops and stream decline. 

On 10 July, Luo Yonghao's livestreaming marketing on Douyin was exactly 100 days. A copy of "Luo Yonghao's 100-day curve of saling goods on Douyin" was also top searched. According to data from a third-party monitoring platform, compared with the April Fool's Day debut data, Luo Yonghao's livestreaming viewing volume dropped by 96.4%, and sales volume dropped by 97%. Not only Luo Yonghao, but almost all Internet celebrity anchors have suffered a decline on stream.

The main reason for this situation is the appearance of "aesthetic fatigue". In the past ten years, there will be a large number of popular Internet celebrities every year, but it will not be long before these Internet celebrities quickly turn into obsolete ones.

Everyone will gradually adapt to external stimuli, from being full of interest at first to slowly becoming feelingless. This is the same whether it is for food, songs or other things. To explain it with economic theory is the "law of diminishing marginal utility."

For this problem, the solution many people have come up with is to continuously produce new high-quality content, select better and lower-priced sources, and try their best to write new stories or make more interesting videos. However, these practices do not have much effect on the extension of the life cycle of Internet celebrities.

When fans feel aesthetically tired of an internet celebrity, they will say: the latest works are meaningless and the quality is not as good as before. Is this really the case? The answer is negative. 

So what is the reason for us to become aesthetically tired of the things we once crazily pursued? At this time we need to understand a concept: stimulating fatigue.

The general public will gradually adapt to the stimulus (this stimulus is multifaceted, it can be sensory stimuli or material stimuli) as the number of stimuli increases, which means that they have no sense of the stimulus.

As an internet celebrity, how can it be regarded as "usable value"? The most basic criterion is: Does the user think of you because of a daily thing he needs to do? Are you useful to him?

For example, if you are afraid of getting angry and drinking xxx, xxx here has a usable value. This is its available property. If an internet celebrity can also have such available attributes, then the internet celebrity has value.

The key to making yourself "available" is to establish a "fan addiction mechanism."

The famous psychologist Skinner once did such an experiment on the addiction mechanism: There are two groups of pigeons. When the first group of pigeons press the red button, there is a 100% chance that the food will fall. In this case, once the pigeons are full, they would only press for a while and then stop. When the second group of pigeons press the button, they can only get food with a certain probability. It may take 60 times to press the pigeons to get food. In this non-100% reward situation, almost all pigeons will choose to slam the button frantically, no matter how small the chance is, they will not be discouraged.

These pigeons stepped on almost 200 times a minute, and stepped continuously for more than 15 hours. Does it resemble the scene when humans play games?

If you make yourself available, users get something (value) from you. Then the establishment of the fan addiction mechanism is to let the fans pay by themselves, and it is not easy to produce "stimulation fatigue".

How can we make fans addicted and cannot do without the influencers they follow? There is only one answer, which allows fans to get more rewards (profits) for their efforts.

Decentralization is the next stop of the Internet celebrity economy?

The current head internet celebrities who saling goods through livestreaming has done well enough to give fans benefits. The top internet celebrities represented by Wei Ya, Li Jiaqi, and Xinba have not only been able to get the highest discounts on the entire network from brand owners, they have even begun to integrate the supply chain system.

Xinba used to be a person doing supply chain work. The purpose of his original "Xin Youzhi Strict Selection" was to supply goods to the platform, and livestreaming marketing was only an accessory. Behind the livestreaming room of Wei Ya is her 10-story office building in Hangzhou, as well as countless staff members who conduct investment, select product, and negotiate price for her. As for Li Jiaqi, he clearly stated in CCTV's "Dialogue" program that there are two things to do in the future: first, expand to the offline market and build a beauty product store carefully selected by Li Jiaqi which focuses on lipsticks and other beauty products. Second, bulid a Chinese Sephora, combining online stream with offline experience.

However, not all internet celebrities have the same ability to influence the supply chain like these top internet celebrities. Is there no chance? The answer is just the opposite. The opportunity for non-head influencers has just arrived, and the opportunity comes from the decentralization trend of influencers.

As early as 2016, I predicted that with the development of mobile Internet, the past traditional media and Internet "centralization" have been completely subverted. I wanted to spread something, how to spread it? It's very simple, look for CCTV, as long as you put a 100 million advertisement, the whole people will pay attention to it. However, no one will do this anymore, because the "decentralization" of mobile Internet has changed the previous situation. The current world is actually a faulted world. It is a group based on countless interests, so now it is found that the more vertical things are more popular, the more likely they are to form a purchase. On the contrary, because of this factor, there will not be one thing that will cover all in the future, but it must be vertical and subdivided.

This is the opportunity for the "young generation" Internet celebrity.

Now the rise of Taobao livestreaming, Bilibili, Douyin and various self-media platforms has initiated a large amount of demand for attention. For example, in the first wave of dividends from the media, everyone only knew Papi Jiang, Mi Meng, and Liushen Leilei. However, with the development of self-media, we have seen more and more vertical self-media. All KOLs can find their own market in the arena of self-media.

Therefore, for latecomers, what they have to do now is to find a vertical field that suits them, and then make an impact.

For example, competition in the apparel industry is too fierce to enter. Can you change your mind? Snacks and fast moving consumer goods are not good? Just relying on selling minced meat cake in the e-sports circle, Dong Xiaosa has made a lot of money. Besides selling goods, can selling knowledge work? Online knowledge payment has grown rapidly. And after gradually bidding farewell to the knowledge payment that had no real thing and sell chicken soup for the soul, now the knowledge payment has become more and more professional. Relying on professional knowledge brands, knowledge-based Internet celebrities can fully cultivate for a long time.

The in-depth innovation cycle of Internet celebrity economy will accelerate. Brands and Internet celebrities that focus on a certain vertical category and a certain niche fan group will get more opportunities and capital favors. 

In English, the word representing influencer is "influencer", which literally translated as "influencer". It is a neutral and partial word. But in China, many people have always separated their "influencer" from their profession and professional knowledge, which means giving up the blue ocean they are already in, and instead making money in Red Sea Market.

I saw Li Jiaqi and the CCTV host sale goods by livestreaming, and saw entrepreneurs and government officials stepping out of officialdom to livestreaming marketing. Most people don't think about the essence behind this matter. In fact, livestreaming internet celebrity industry has become a nationally recognized industrial structural change. Compared with Li Jiaqi's billion-dollar mansion, what we should think about is the new opportunities brought about by changes in the industrial structure.

Around the decentralized business model, the penetration of Internet celebrity economy in different industries, channels, and scenarios has continued to deepen, forming a rich and diverse innovative business ecosystem. At present, the business imagination of "Internet celebrity economy + X" brings new marketing, new brands, new professions, new scenes, new transactions, etc. With the continuous "become more and more important" of Internet celebrity economy, more decentralized innovative business models will emerge in the future, creating more motivation and possibilities for the development of the new economy.

In addition, in addition to real KOLs, Internet celebrities such as objects and virtual images will be added in the future. The current Internet celebrity economy is mainly based on the role of the Internet celebrity entity, and the influence and appeal of the Internet celebrity are used to promote the realization of consumption. Among the diversified internet celebrities, fans establish relationships with internet celebrity IP. Driven by the influence of IP, consumption is realized, and brand loyalty is gradually increasing.

New economy & new infrastructure, the dual engine of the future economy

"2016 New Economy" was included in the government work report for the first time. Facing the new growth cycle, the new economy will become an important force for China's future economic sustainable development. The Internet is the most important part of the new economy.

The downward development of the Internet to the industrial chain has brought about the development of social, e-commerce and other fields. The current Internet celebrity economy is also a product of the downstream extension of the industrial chain.

This extension provides new opportunities for various economic formats. According to the Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index, after the outbreak of the epidemic in January 2020, the NEI index has shown a continuous increase. Among them, Internet-related industries are the main growth force, which is directly related to the background that the epidemic promotes the online life and work of all people. From the perspective of a longer development process, in recent years, the growth rate of China's network economy revenue has been significantly higher than that of China's GDP, which has become an important potential energy for China's economic development.

So we can see that practitioners in the new economy are being officially recognized and encouraged.

On 23 June, Shanghai released the public list of the first batch of special talents introduced and settled in 2020, and Li Jiaqi settled in Shanghai as a “special talent”. In July of this year, the three national departments announced 9 new occupations, and new occupations such as "Internet marketer" and "online learning service engineer" have become new occupations recognized by the country. Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China recently clarified the employment indicators for colleges and universities, which clearly pointed out that "WeChat Official Account bloggers", "freelance writers" and "e-sports workers" are self-employed and should be included in employment. Among them, it is particularly emphasized that the online office rate of 78.8% of self-media content editing has become the post with the lowest impact on work efficiency during the epidemic.

The National Development and Reform Commission and other 13 departments announced on the 15th the "Opinions on Supporting the Healthy Development of New Business Models and New Models to Start the Consumer Market and Drive Employment Expansion", proposing to adopt 19 innovative support policies to accelerate the healthy development of 15 new business models of the digital economy. Start the consumer market, drive the expansion of employment, and create new advantages in the digital economy. In terms of encouraging the development of new individual economies, actively cultivate new individuals, support independent employment, and support diversified independent employment and time sharing employment such as Wechat e-commerce and live broadcasting. Choose a certain time of day to work, vigorously develop the economy represented by microblog, micro innovation, micro applications, micro products, micro movies, micro fitness, micro tourism, etc., and encourage "sideline innovation".

The upstream development of the Internet industry is the "new infrastructure."

It can be said that "new infrastructure" is the infrastructure of new economy, new business, and the application of new infrastructure. It will greatly reduce the threshold and technical difficulty of new technologies and new models of innovation and entrepreneurship, and can stimulate innovation and employment opportunities in the downstream of the Internet industry in a short time.

This is also when 5G, AI, and big data industries develop, the surrounding "auxiliary" industries of Internet celebrity economy such as livestreaming platforms, e-commerce platforms, mobile payments, and express logistics have developed rapidly, pushing the Internet celebrity economy into a new stage of development.

In September 1993, the Clinton administration, which had only been in office for only eight months at the time, announced a plan that seemed a little vague at the time——"National Information Infrastructure". We also call this project the "Information Superhighway Project." But it was this plan that changed the pattern of the global economy for many years and made the United States the leader of the world economy.

Back then, all companies involved in this plan became quite successful companies at that time and even now. Bell, Microsoft, and Motorola have each announced their investment plans in high-speed optical fiber transmission systems, satellite communication networks and other fields in the next few years; telecommunications companies AT&T, MCI, and Sprint have successively connected optical fibers to major cities in the United States.

Driven by the "Information Superhighway Project," the information industry in the United States has grown rapidly, such as the Internet, chips, software, electronic equipment, network technology, and mobile communication technology related to it.

Now, the new economy and new infrastructure have been working simultaneously in the Internet industry chain. Internet celebrity economy has become the first new epitome of the new economic growth engine. In the future, more and more new industries and new technologies will bring brand new changes to our business and life.