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Chen Bo: The outbreak of positive cases in Beijing Xinfadi means that virus tracing should be overhauled

———— Release time:2020-12-03   Edit:  Read:22 ————

Beijing today announced 45 positive test results including Xinfadi. The good news is that everyone's panic is not so much.

 

But this is not a trivial matter. It means that the original virus tracing system will be overhauled, and China's prevention and control system will also be greatly optimized.

 

The virus traceability work of scientists around the world has always been based on the assumption of human-to-human transmission. This hypothesis was verified during SARS, because Beijing did have a large-scale outbreak as the most concentrated place in China.

 

However, the traceability of the new coronavirus COVID19 has been very difficult. Although 7 million people have been infected worldwide and the world's top scientists have collected a large number of samples for cross-validation, the conclusions drawn are increasingly contradictory and the assumption of human-to-human transmission is getting farther and farther.

 

The most recent large-scale study is from the United Kingdom. The British Covid-19 Genomics Alliance (Cog-UK) completely rejected the idea that a single "patient zero" caused the entire British epidemic, and found that most of the first cases of new coronavirus pneumonia in the UK came from European countries.

 

It should be noted that this research is based on international travel data, which is the assumption of human-to-human transmission. But based on this assumption, it turned out that the epidemic in the UK did not have only one source, but at least 1,356 sources.

 

This is obviously a "ridiculous" result that goes against common sense.

 

But it’s not that the scientist’s technology is wrong, but that there is an undiscovered transmission route, which may have a considerable impact, and in some cases even surpassed the “person-to-person transmission” mechanism.

 

This transmission method is "food transmission from person to person", that is, cold chain transmission.

 

It was finally verified in China today.

 

Why can it be verified in China, but not in other countries?

 

Because Beijing has not had a local confirmed case for a long time, the environment is clean enough, which is equivalent to providing a unique "natural laboratory", excluding other factors, so it is enough to prove the possibility of cold chain transmission.

 

South Korea also experienced a collective outbreak of seafood management agencies on March 12, but no one thought about the cold chain problem.

 

This time, imported salmon was found.

 

The main countries that currently farm salmon are Norway and Chile, followed by the United Kingdom, Canada, the Faroe Islands and Australia. The total output of these six countries accounted for more than 90% of global output.

 

In 2018, China imported more than 60,000 tons of chilled salmon. At present, major salmon farming countries in the world export salmon to China. It is estimated that 70% of salmon in the world is eaten fresh and raw (not frozen).

 

Among them, Norway is the first country to carry out commercial salmon farming and is currently the country with the largest farming production in the world.

 

The cold chain transportation of salmon and the final eating process is simply a perfect transmission chain. The virus can survive for a long time in a cold and humid environment, and then enter the body through the habit of eating raw. The chain hides too deeply.

 

If we superimpose the cold chain network on the international travel network, we will certainly find that we can better explain the current path of virus transmission. The 1,356 sources in the UK may be drastically screened into dozens of sources.

 

More importantly, China can no longer be made a scapegoat.

 

Europe has been criticizing China's wildlife market, but World Health Organization has said that the possibility of animal-to-human transmission is very low.

 

Well now, no evidence of direct transmission from live animals has been found, but evidence of transmission from refrigerated food has been found. This directly hit the Europeans in the face.

 

There may be huge loopholes in their proud food safety inspection system.

 

Of course, behind it is a major impact on the habit of eating fresh food. And this habit comes from Europe, America and Japan, not China.

 

This incident must be thoroughly traced to the source, which may reveal important information about the spread of the virus.

 

China must strictly require the EU to raise the safety and quarantine standards for exported food, and strictly control fresh food from Norway and other countries.

 

At the same time, given the group immunotherapy in Norway and other countries and the recent soaring anti-Chinese sentiment, we cannot completely rule out a possibility:

 

Some anti-China personnel deliberately failed to comply with strict hygiene standards during the fresh processing process, for example, they may spit on food.

 

Don't forget, there have been cases in the United States and Europe where infected people spit on supermarket containers and were detained. There was also an elevator incident in Wuhan. The natural survival time of the virus on stainless steel and other common items in the kitchen and cold chain can reach three days, not to mention in a refrigerated environment.

 

The evil of the human heart cannot be underestimated.

 

At the same time, given the group immunotherapy in Norway and other countries and the recent soaring anti-Chinese sentiment, we cannot completely rule out a possibility:

 

Some anti-China personnel deliberately failed to strictly follow the hygienic standards during the fresh processing. For example, you may spit on food.

 

Don’t forget, there have been cases in the U.S. and Europe where infected people spit on supermarket containers and were detained. There have also been elevator incidents in Wuhan. The natural survival time of the virus on stainless steel and other common items in the kitchen and cold chain can reach three days, not to mention in a refrigerated environment.

 

The evil of the human heart cannot be underestimated.

 

This also means that the early spread of Wuhan may not be through live animals, but imported cold chains. The spread of the cold chain will be slower than the spread between people. It is stored in the refrigerators of countries around the world through a complicated network, and then suddenly spread out.

 

From preventing people to controlling things, this is another huge challenge and risk to the world's supply chain.

 

It seems that we can only wait for the vaccine.