Recalling several crisis events that I have personally experienced:

1) In 2003, I encountered SARS in Beijing (please refer to my previous article: Recalling the Tsinghua Park in SARS)

2) In 2007, I encountered a sudden hurricane in the desert of the Middle East, and spent a week in the shelter with dozens of engineers and local employees from all over the world.

3) In 2011, I encountered the Great Kanto Earthquake in Tokyo and the nuclear leak afterwards.

Next, is now the crisis of pneumonia.

Let me talk about a few personal feelings about the crisis:

1) No matter how big a disaster is, no matter how tense emotions are, it will pass. The days will gradually enter the right track, and everything will gradually become a thing of the past. (Of course this is true for the rest of your life)

2) Follow the guidelines of the authority. Even the rigorous Japanese government has been criticized for its handling after the 311 earthquake and nuclear leak. I think the current response of the Chinese government has been very powerful (except for the early deceitful and unscrupulous behaviors of decision makers in Wuhan and Hubei).

3) Whether it is the closing of schools during SARS, the evacuation in the desert, or the earthquake of 311, you must stay calm at all times, not panic, and assess the situation. The various articles and rumors on the Internet are overwhelming, which can easily cause anxiety. I suggest that you refer to the real-time dynamics of the novel pneumonia epidemic co-organized by Tencent's "Further Verification Platform" and the People's Daily-Dingxiangyuan.

4) Prepare the necessary supplies at any time and prepare for the worst. These include but are not limited to: enough food for a few days (in some cases, it may take longer), drinking water, medicine (for friends with chronic diseases) and daily necessities. Of course, it may be far from this time in many places.

In fact, not only in times of disaster, even in ordinary days, we must have such preparations. In Japanese supermarkets, there are special storage water for five, ten, and fifty years. Many Japanese households will reserve and replace the water on a regular basis to prevent problems before they happen. According to the popular saying, the roof should be repaired on a sunny day instead of waiting for the typhoon (Alibaba CEO Zhang Yong said in his previous annual speech).

I wrote an article before-on how to prepare a family emergency kit. Of course, this article is aimed at unexpected situations such as fires and earthquakes. The idea is to take precautions.

5) Apart from paying attention to necessary information and preparations during the time of asylum (for example, when the door is closed every day), it is also a good time to study and read. This is a rare opportunity for no one to interrupt. I remember that when I was taking refuge in a hurricane, I finished writing several client reports. The feeling is that you can disperse your anxiety and get rid of the smoky sea of information.

6) On the premise of protecting yourself, help others. First of all, don't trouble others and reduce the burden on others, which will benefit society.

In addition, I also talk about some of my thoughts about the crisis:

1) At present, the measures taken by the state and government during the epidemic prevention campaign during the Spring Festival this year are very effective. It can be seen that there are not many pedestrians on the road in all parts of the country, and almost everyone wears a mask. But it must also be noted that this may have a serious impact on the economic income of a large number of enterprises and individuals. In front of life, income is obviously secondary. However, once this state continues for a period of time, small and micro enterprises and the lives of some people at the bottom of society will need certain relief measures. In this regard, all sectors of society need to prepare in advance.

2) The management of a city is like the management of an enterprise. Not only to build, but also to maintain. Not only need to consider the increment, but also maintain the inventory. In fact, each of us and each company should stop at the appropriate time and ask ourselves: Are our achievements fragile? What are the hidden dangers?

In the enterprise, there is a method called FMEA: Failure Mode Effect Analysis. Corresponding analysis of the company’s operations, processes and products needs to be carried out on a regular basis: what kinds of problems may arise? How to prevent (prevention)? Once it happens, how to reduce the loss (mitigation)? If you have to wait until the problem occurs each time to remedy it, the cost is too high.

I believe that after this incident, many city managers and business operators in China need to reflect on this question: If a major disaster occurs, what are my own countermeasures? This is the philosophy that I have always advocated: when you develop your career, you must consider physical examination and insurance; when decorating your house, you must consider fire-fighting equipment and escape devices; when developing products, you must consider backup plans and recovery measures.

This cost is often insignificant, but it will play a role at critical times. Everyone sees increments (in the words of Jobs, the external side of furniture). Only experts will pay attention to the stock part (the side of the furniture against the wall), which is the part that truly reflects the level of development, operation and management.

I hope that the lessons learned this time can make China a step further in emergency management!

Finally, I wish readers and friends to pay attention in the near future: do not go out, wash your hands frequently, wear a mask, and refuse to party!