In 2019, it seems that nothing serious has been resolved internationally. China and the United States continue to dispute (the dispute over the return of 5g chip manufacturing industry will continue), the Middle East is still chaotic, Brexit continues to talk, and North Korea is still in trouble.

What did uncle Ben say in that poem recitation?

"After the financial crisis, we want to impeach the leader. Throughout the world, the scenery is unique here."

In 2019, it seems that “the scenery here is really good”. A series of reforms have been implemented in China. The four comprehensive top-level designs have basically completed the goals. State-owned enterprises, governments, finance and taxation, urban and rural areas, securities, industry, legal system, the Belt and Road Initiative, have made great breakthroughs. So 2020 is still relatively optimistic about the domestic situation.

Gold

The property of gold, in addition to the consumption of Orientals, the biggest role is to express the volatility of international politics. If international frictions are expected to continue in 2020, and the demands of major economies such as the United States have not been met, high-probability international political fluctuations will continue, and the price of gold will remain firm. So gold is one of the bulls.

US stocks, crude oil

What the US economy is most worried about is imported inflation, that is, inflation indexed by skyrocketing crude oil prices. The current price, the price of US crude oil is in the 60-65 range, and the oil is in the 65-70 range. This price is not high or low, which is hard to say. However, as far as the demands of various parties are concerned, the oil-producing countries still hope that the price of oil will be firm and the implementation of the reduction will be good. In addition, global consumption is acceptable and currency is more acceptable. So I dare not look at it for a long time. However, in the short to medium term, international oil prices will remain firm, and short- and medium-term US stocks will not plummet. But if crude oil continues to rise in the future, US stocks may be in danger. Guessing is always a bad habit. Finding relevant signals for verification and combining them into trading strategies, avoiding guessing is the best way.

China Stock Market

Currently it is stable at 3000 points, and it should be stable within 10% of 3000 (2700-3300). The reform of the securities law is a signal, as is the counter-cyclical adjustment. The Six Stability’s deliberate proposal to stabilize finance is also good, stable foreign capital, stable investment, supporting fiscal and monetary policies. At present, it is still a positive factor for the stock market. At the same time, domestic yields are better than external. The realization of foreign investment stabilization should be able to be achieved. This should not change whether there are several rounds of conflict between China and the United States. What remains is the question of structural choice.

State-owned enterprise reform

This term is proposed separately, because after the reform of state-owned enterprises, good state-owned enterprises must be scarce assets of the country. Its importance can be put in the position of a large sovereign country. They are important to support national construction, Including the important forces of the Belt and Road Initiative (source of funds). So I think that the large state-owned enterprises and central enterprises that listen to the party are really shouldering their historical mission. Love excellent state-owned enterprises = patriotism. At this historical point in time, especially in the era of accelerated reform and opening up, it should have historical significance. Patriotism requires more action.

China property market

One word: steady. Three words: structural. I think that small general rise in first and second tier cities may happen once. At the same time, with the continuous development of large-scale infrastructure in urban agglomerations, there are still good opportunities for real estate. Unlike before, the structure of the yield gap between the property market and the stock market will change. This should be one of the reasons for changing the investment portfolio.

RMB

RMB must be stable. RMB is unlikely to depreciate significantly. Of course, a substantial appreciation does not meet demand. To ensure a steady state under a certain degree of fluctuation, it should be needed. And this "stability" should also be included in "stability expectations". Because foreign exchange transactions, if investors' expectations are misled, RMB will be difficult to manage for a while. So it must be stable. And on the basis of stability, it will accelerate international construction, and its smooth promotion is very important.