In the previous session, we look forward to six important trends that may occur in 2021, including the epidemic, the change of US government, the stock market, cryptocurrency, autonomous driving, and medical pensions. We then look at possible changes in the following four areas: real estate, aerospace, energy and the Internet. 

7. Real estate: First-tier cities have steady growth, while second-tier cities are weak in the north and strong in the south. The agglomeration effect of population inflows into cities has become increasingly obvious.

Regarding the development of housing prices in first-tier cities in 2020, you can have a grandstand view from the following picture:

Shenzhen's housing prices have led the way, and there is a faint trend toward Hong Kong housing prices (even in some areas). Shanghai's main performance is supplementary gains in surrounding areas. There is little movement in Beijing, but trading volume has quietly expanded in the past few months, which may also cause prices to follow up in 2021.

In terms of second-tier cities, most of the cities in the north, with the exception of Xi'an and Qingdao, have seen little improvement, while cities in the south are developing rapidly. This gap is likely to increase or even intensify in 2021. According to historical experience, after the first-tier cities have finished rising, it will be the second-tier cities' turn.

This is also in line with my feelings when I visited various places this year. With the Yangtze River as the boundary, the South has a significant difference from the North in terms of urban management standards, population inflows, and service awareness. Whether this trend will intensify or weaken in 2021 is worthy of attention.

What is the experience of developed countries in this regard? In Japan, where I have worked for a long time, 44% of the population of the country is concentrated in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area and the Osaka Metropolitan Area, and they are increasingly concentrated. The concentration of population in big cities is a natural trend, because it will bring about the improvement of social efficiency and more job opportunities. Simply put, in remote places, thousands of people have to build three or four gas stations. Where there is a large population, a gas station is enough.

The consequence of this is that, except for these two metropolitan areas and some second-tier and third-tier cities, most places have become “left-behind areas” with sparsely populated people, hollowed out industries, and reduced job opportunities, which further drives young people to go to big cities. The governments of some small cities even gave out houses for free to attract residents.

Regarding housing prices, a well-known saying is to look at finance in the short term, land in the medium term, and population in the long term. The key lies in whether the population flows in or out: people and companies "vote with their feet" to choose the most suitable place for their work and life.

 8. Aerospace: "Tianwen-1" landed on Mars. The core module of the Chinese Space Station "Tiangong" was launched. Musk's Starlink is basically completed.

Friends who follow the WeChat public account of "Cui Ge See the World" may know that aerospace is an area that Cui Wei is very interested in. Last year alone, there were a series of related articles (such as video: How to fly drones on Mars), I also think this is an important industry in the future.  Many people say that Chinese entrepreneurs should learn from Musk and set their sights on the interstellar. They do not realize that China already has some private aerospace companies that are catching up.  For example, Star Glory completed 1.2 billion yuan in Series B financing in August 2020, and Galaxy Power completed 200 million yuan in Series A financing in December. With the country's liberalization of private enterprises in related fields, China's X-Space may emerge in early 2021.

Here is a small investment tip: Here is a small investment tip: If you pay attention to important events in China’s aerospace industry (such as the launch of the "Tianwen-1" Mars rover), and you buy aerospace stocks about half a month before some important time points, you may have a certain gain when the event occurs (note that it is only possible and does not constitute any investment advice).

How do you know these important events and time points? You can follow aerospace-related news, or follow the WeChat official account of "Cui Ge Look the World".

According to a report on 3 January:

The reporter learned from the National Space Administration that as of 6 o'clock today (January 3), my country’s first Mars exploration mission "Tianwen 1" has been in orbit for about 163 days, with a flight mileage of over 400 million kilometers. It is nearly 130 million kilometers from the earth and about 8.3 million kilometers from Mars. According to the plan, it will implement near-fire braking in more than a month, enter the ring-fire orbit, and prepare to land on Mars.

CCTV News

According to the established plan of the "Tianwen-1" Mars Rover, around 10 February this year, Tianwen-1 will perform a key "brake", that is, it will slow down after approaching Mars and be captured by Mars and become a Martian satellite. After that, it will gradually slow down, choose an opportunity to land on the surface of Mars, and complete the landing on Mars in 7-8 minutes.

In addition, the core module of the Chinese space station "Tiangong" will be launched on the Long March 5B Yao-2 rocket in Wenchang, Hainan in the spring of 2021. At present, the core module has basically completed all the testing work, the astronaut crew has been selected, and mission training is underway. The picture below shows the construction plan of the "Tiangong". The specific launch time has not yet been determined.

On the other side of the ocean, Musk’s X-Space will continue its Starlink plan to provide satellite Internet to the world. The total number of existing satellites above the earth is 1,459, and Starlink will launch 4,425 small satellites for "satellite Internet" communications only in low orbits of approximately 1,100 kilometers near the earth.

And 7,518 satellites will be launched in lower orbits of approximately 300 kilometers near the earth, with a total of nearly 12,000 satellites.

Starlink has already provided commercial Internet services in some regions. According to netizens, the measured speed is close to or even faster than home broadband, but the delay is slightly longer. This plan will gradually mature in 2021.

9. Energy: Energy independent strategy promotes the acceleration of exploration business. The wind power industry has become a hot spot.

As a veteran of the energy industry, I have been following the development of the energy upstream industry. Although oil prices have fallen sharply this year due to the impact of the epidemic, the domestic exploration business has accelerated due to the high-level emphasis on energy independent strategies.

Many people may not understand the fact that most of my country's oil and gas resources need to be imported: China is currently the world's second largest oil refiner and oil consumer, and the third largest natural gas consumer. The foreign dependence of crude oil is nearly 70%, and the foreign dependence of natural gas is over 40%.

Another aspect of making up for the shortcomings is the use of renewable energy. Among the non oil and gas energy forms such as solar energy, wind power, hydropower, nuclear power, and geothermal, I am more optimistic about the development momentum of wind power this year. In fact, if you take an airplane through the central or coastal areas, you can often see a large number of wind turbines slowly rotating in the desert or on the sea, which is spectacular.

The advantages of wind power include:

1. Clean and good environmental benefits.

2. Renewable and inexhaustible; no greenhouse gas emissions.

3. The infrastructure construction cycle is short; it can be constructed on land or at sea.

4. Flexible installation scale. Low operating and maintenance costs.

Currently the leading listed companies in this area include Goldwind Technology and Mingyang Intelligent.

 10. Internet: Anti-monopoly weakens the right to speak on first-line platforms and creates opportunities for second-line companies. The function of "suitable for the old" is gradually popularized.

 Everyone may be concerned about the recent anti-monopoly policies in the field of Internet platforms. I think this will weaken the voice of first-line platforms in the short term, and even lead to some splits. This creates opportunities for second-tier Internet companies.

 Regarding "anti-monopoly", I have always believed that it should be aimed at "monopoly of market access" rather than "monopoly of market share."

 As long as a market can continue to have new competitors enter, even if a company occupies an absolute dominant position, it will still not slack and will insist on innovation. Examples of this are Intel in the field of chips, Microsoft in the field of operating systems, and Didi, which dominates the taxi market today. They will not relax their vigilance because of the high market share. They must continuously improve their products and services. Why?

 Because there will be new innovative companies coming out at any time to steal their dominant position.

 On the contrary, if the access to a market is monopolized, then even if there are ten or one hundred scattered companies, they can also get together and sleep in peace, because there is no worries about the future. What are such examples? You can think for yourself.

 On the other hand, as more and more elderly users feel that the current Internet products are difficult to use, the "ageing transformation" of Internet products, interfaces, and services will become an important development direction. The most well-known in this regard is Apple.

 In fact, this is not just out of regulatory and charity requirements, but a real market demand: the current population over 60 has reached more than 240 million (2017 data), this is a market that cannot be ignored. Whoever can design a product that is convenient for elderly users and adapts to elderly users is likely to seize the opportunity in this market. For example, solve the problem of having two remote controls for the TV?

 Okay, the above ten points are Cui Wei's outlook on some important trends in 2021, which are for your reference only. Finally, with a sentence from Lincoln, I would like to encourage everyone:

The best way to predict the future is to create the future.