2020 which makes you feel mixed feelings has finally passed. To describe 2020 in a poem by Bertolt Brecht, the famous German dramatist and poet, it is: "This is a year that people will talk about, and this is a year that people will be silent when they talk about it."

On the one hand, many experiences and lessons in 2020 are worthy of repeated summarization and reflection. On the other hand, we might as well look ahead to some important trends that may occur (or continue) in various fields such as life, economy, and technology in 2021 when we say goodbye to the old and welcome the new. Here are my predictions for 10 major trends:

1. The new coronavirus epidemic will weaken before the end of the year due to the gradual spread of vaccines.

This unprecedented public health crisis is still fermenting all over the world, but it is beginning to dawn because of the emergence of vaccines. Regarding the existing mRNA vaccines and domestic inactivated vaccines, I personally think that they have met the requirements for herd immunity. (For mRNA vaccines, please refer to my previous article How Pfizer's New Coronavirus Vaccine Was Born-and talk about how to grasp "luck" )

If we describe the process of human beings against the new coronavirus epidemic as a war (in terms of scale and number of casualties, it is indeed not far), to quote Churchill’s famous saying: "This is not the end, this is not even the beginning of the end. But, it may it's the beginning and the end."

However, there is one thing to note, which many people may not understand: the protection rate of all vaccines currently reported (79.34% of China Biological and 95% of Pfizer) refers to the incidence rate, not the detection rate. However, the detection rate data has no unified results because it is very difficult to count.

What does it mean? That is to say, if you get a vaccine, it is not certain that the infected person can be prevented from becoming "asymptomatic infected" and the nucleic acid test is positive, but there is a high probability that they can be protected from the disease.

2. The new president of the United States will bring about some changes in diplomacy after he takes office.

 On 20 January, the new president of the United States came to power (you can refer to the several articles I wrote about the US election). In terms of internal affairs, I think he will be restrained by the Republican-controlled Senate. At least for next year, there will be no obvious changes. But in terms of diplomacy, it may completely adopt new ways which different from Trump in terms of border walls, immigration, climate policies, and so on.

What impact will it have on the economy? To put it simply, it will be more and more difficult for Chinese companies to raise funds in the United States (this year, the amount of Chinese companies' IPO financing in the United States actually hit a new high). Chinese companies have to pay attention to the European market (just like Xiaomi's rapid growth in the European market).

3. The stock and investment markets surged in the first half of the year, and the trend weakened after July.

As we all know, July next year is an important time.

Therefore, before July, I think the stock market will maintain a steady growth trend. After July, it may retreat as the stimulus measures for the epidemic weaken, the economy is overheating and other factors, leaving a long upper shadow line.

However, even if the stock market is strong, it should be noted that, just like this year, most of the trading volume and gains are concentrated in the top companies, that is, the so-called Jiangmao, Chemao and so on. Top companies like Moutai in each market segment attract most of the capital, especially fund managers.

The following is a report recently issued by Guosheng Strategy: The proportion of 50% of the stocks after market capitalization in the total turnover has been declining year by year, and has dropped to 19%. The United States is 2%. In 2021, this trend is likely to continue further. If you invest in unpopular stocks with small market value, you need to be careful!

4. The central bank's digital currency will become more popular; the price of Bitcoin will also reach a new high; the first Blockchain stock appears in Chinese stock market; insurance business around digital assets will become an important track.

Regarding the central bank digital currency (DCEP), in 2020, I wrote a series of articles explaining its concept, characteristics and uses. You are welcome to refer to it. Before New Year's Day, Beijing also launched a pilot project of digital currency payment in some merchants. It is foreseeable that DCEP will be more widely used in 2021, and related payment infrastructure, tools, and regulatory policies will also be gradually improved. For friends in finance and payment related industries, it may bring certain business opportunities.

Due to the quantitative easing of central bank currencies around the world, the prices of major assets represented by Bitcoin, gold, coal, and iron ore will rise sharply in 2020.

Yes, I think Bitcoin has become a global commodity in a certain sense because of its scale.  As more and more financial institutions enter this market, the price of Bitcoin may continue to rise in 2021.

 However, for the Chinese market, due to the strengthening of supervision and the strict crackdown on the OTC market, there are risks in investment in this area. The currency price may rise but the money cannot be exchanged.  If you are a long-term investor, you may not care. But if you are short-term, you need to guard against policy risks in this area.

In terms of the industrial application and landing of Blockchain technology, there have been some domestic companies with stable development and actual cases. Although there are a lot of "Blockchain concept stocks" in the stock market, as far as I know, there are no domestic listed companies that are really focused on Blockchain technology and applications (in the United States there is CAN with mining machines as the main business). However, based on my understanding of some companies, I believe there will be a company to be listed in 2021.

 The further diversification of digital assets and their inherent risks (hacking attacks, etc.) will give rise to related risk hedging businesses, that is, insurance for digital assets. Bridge Mutual has developed prominently in this area.

5. The proportion of new energy vehicles continues to increase, and autonomous driving has begun to enter the mainstream market.

There are more and more green-plate cars on the roads of first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. On the one hand, it is due to preferential policies in license lottery and auction. On the other hand, it is also because the performance and stability of new energy vehicles have reached a certain level.

 Nevertheless, I still met many new energy car owners who were afraid to turn on the air conditioner. This requires not only the further popularization of charging piles, but also the upgrade of the power grid to support such a large charging load. According to a friend in the power industry, to achieve the goal of 20% of new energy vehicles in 2025, it is almost necessary to build a complete power grid (In 2025, China's car sales are estimated to reach 30 million, which means that the annual sales of new energy vehicles will reach 6 million). Undoubtedly, there are also a lot of business opportunities.

Following the development of new energy vehicles is the development and popularization of autonomous driving technology. At present, pilots of autonomous vehicles and buses have been launched in some blocks of some cities. However, just as most early tests of autonomous driving in the United States choose Phoenix, which has a flat road, the application scenarios of autonomous driving are still relatively simple.

In 2021, can we usher in the "singularity" of the development of autonomous driving?  This is not so much a prediction as it is hope. I believe this is an inevitable trend. Just as machines have replaced abacus and typing, predictable and repeatable traffic flow will be the next high ground occupied by machines.

 As the functions of machines are getting stronger and stronger, do humans just have nothing to do?  Of course not. Humans can use the saved time for more creative work.  What's more, the popularization of autonomous driving will also bring about the development in various areas including maps, radar, driving algorithms, machine supervision, etc., which will create new job opportunities.

6. Medical technology, pharmaceutical research and development, and high-end elderly care facilities will become development priorities.

After the epidemic came, I often joked that human needs are simplified to four: a place to stay (real estate), a place to see a doctor (medicine), food and drink (food, liquor), and access to the Internet (Internet service). These four areas are basically the best performing sectors in the stock market. Except real estate, because the great development of the past few decades has overdrawn the current growth rate, but the performance in each region is also different, see the next article for details.

 In medicine, medical technology and medical research and development will accelerate further. In recent years, many medical technology companies have gone public. But let’s take a look at how many people around you know how to use medical services on the Internet, especially middle-aged and elderly people who have urgent medical resources?

I believe that the combination of offline physical examination, diagnosis and treatment, and online Internet medical treatment will become a new trend in 2021.  In particular, the development of technologies such as remote ultrasound, remote consultation and even remote surgery will make it easier for patients in fourth-tier and fifth-tier cities to obtain medical resources in first-tier and second-tier cities.

The further intensification of aging will increase the demand for health care facilities. In the past, there was a view that all elderly care facilities need to be built in beautiful and sparsely populated suburbs, with certain medical services.

But in fact, from the experience of Japan and other developed countries, high-end elderly care facilities will be built in the center of the city or near the tertiary hospitals: The elderly not only need care, they also need to socialize, enjoy life and professional medical services, and are also convenient for children to visit. (Watanabe Junichi has a novel "Return Paradise", which describes the life of the elderly in this kind of nursing home).  I estimate that such high-end facilities will gradually appear in China's first- and second-tier cities.

 The above is my personal forecast of the new year's trends, or more precisely, a few areas that I pay more attention to. In the next episode, I will talk about development trends in real estate, energy, aerospace and the Internet.

How accurate are these predictions? The future can never be figured out, and this is where its charm lies. At the beginning of 2020, who can predict that the arrival of the new coronavirus epidemic will turn the world upside down?